The Indian alcoholic beverages (alcobev) industry is set to experience strong growth in FY2025, according to a recent report by ICRA. The report predicts a revenue expansion of 8-10 percent, driven by consistent demand for beer and a recovery in the consumption of spirits, as well as an increasing consumer preference for premium products.

In Q1 FY2025, the spirits industry saw a revenue increase of approximately 9 percent year-on-year (YoY), supported by 5-7 percent improvement in realizations and 2-4 percent volume growth. The beer industry, in particular, benefited from the peak season, recording a 12 percent YoY revenue increase, due to 3-5 percent volume growth and 7-9 percent rise in realizations.

Commenting on the volume growth, Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head of Corporate Ratings at ICRA, said: “We expect the alcobev industry volume growth to improve to 5-6 percent in FY2025, up from ~4 percent in FY2024. Spirits volumes are projected to grow at a moderate pace of 2-4 percent, supported by favorable demographics and limited tax increases. Meanwhile, beer is expected to see a 5-7 percent volume growth, building on a high base from FY2024."

Despite the rise in grain prices, particularly non-basmati rice, the operating profit margin (OPM) for ICRA’s sample set of companies is anticipated to remain stable at 12-13 percent in FY2025, thanks to declining packaging material costs such as glass bottles, which benefited from lower soda ash prices.

Shah noted, "While grain costs surged by 20-25 percent in H1 FY2025, prices are starting to stabilize, particularly for non-basmati rice. Additionally, price hikes granted by various state governments are expected to support margins. However, the diversion of grains toward ethanol production, driven by government blending mandates, will be a key factor to watch."

The capital expenditure (CAPEX) trend within the industry also points to sustained growth. Companies in ICRA’s sample set invested over INR 1,000 crore in FY2023 and FY2024, primarily to enhance distillery and brewery capacities. While CAPEX is expected to moderate to 2-3 percent of operating income in FY2025 and FY2026, this follows a period of significant capacity additions.

ICRA forecasts that debt levels will remain stable, supported by modest debt-funded CAPEX plans and strong cash accruals. Debt coverage metrics are expected to be healthy, with total debt/OPBDITA projected at 0.3-0.5 times and interest coverage at 27-30 times in FY2025.

In conclusion, the Indian alcoholic beverages industry is likely to remain in high spirits throughout FY2025, buoyed by a favorable demand outlook and stable profitability, despite rising input costs.