Indian Hotels to Witness Upto 9% Revenue Growth in 2025

Indian Hotels Poised for Revenue Growth and ARR Surge in FY2025: ICRA Forecast

By Author

Published on February 23, 2024

The Indian hotel industry is on the brink of significant growth, with ICRA forecasting a revenue increase of 7-9% in FY2025, building on the robust 14-16% growth anticipated in FY2024. This optimistic outlook is fueled by a combination of factors, including sustained domestic travel momentum, an uptick in meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) demand, a resurgence in weddings and business travel, and the burgeoning interest in spiritual tourism and tier-II city destinations.

ICRA's analysis points to a sustained period of high occupancy for pan-India premium hotels, expected to maintain decadal highs of 70-72% in both FY2024 and FY2025, after a recovery to 68-70% in FY2023. Concurrently, Average Room Rates (ARRs) are on an upward trajectory, predicted to increase from INR 7,200-7,400 in FY2024 to INR 7,800-8,000 in FY2025. This rise in ARRs is bringing the industry closer to the FY2008 peak levels, albeit at an 8-12% discount in FY2024, with a convergence expected in FY2025.

Despite the general trend, certain hotels and locations have already surpassed the FY2008 peak ARR figures in FY2024, indicating a spike beyond the average increases. This surge is supported by a healthy demand outlook, driven by improvements in infrastructure, air connectivity, demographic factors, and the growth of large-scale MICE events facilitated by new convention centers.

The Indian hotel sector's recovery and growth are bolstered by several ongoing and upcoming renovations, refurbishments, and upgrades across the industry, further enhancing ARRs. The sustained interest in domestic leisure travel and the slow but steady recovery of Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA) – contingent on the global macroeconomic climate – are additional factors contributing to the industry's positive trajectory.

Vinutaa S, Vice President and Sector Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited, highlighted the critical role of domestic tourism as the primary demand driver in FY2024 and its expected continuation in the near term. Despite the wane of the revenge travel phenomenon, leisure travel remains a steadfast contributor to the industry's recovery path. However, the industry's full potential is somewhat hampered by the lingering challenges in the supply chain.

Looking ahead, the Indian hotel industry's revenue growth is expected to be complemented by a favorable supply situation, healthy demand in the MICE segment, and the strategic expansion of larger players through management contracts and operating leases. This confluence of factors, coupled with the uptick in earnings and cash flows, is poised to support a stronger capital structure and improved debt metrics beyond pre-Covid levels in FY2024 and FY2025.

As the Indian hotel industry navigates through this period of recovery and growth, the focus on enhancing guest experiences, leveraging domestic tourism, and capitalizing on the strategic expansion opportunities will be key to sustaining the positive momentum.

For more detailed insights and analysis on the Indian hotel industry's outlook, visit ICRA's official website.

ITC Hotels Demerger Could Lead to Passive Outflow of USD 180 Million: Nuvama

By Nishang Narayan

Published on January 8, 2025

Following the demerger of ITC Hotels from its parent company, ITC Ltd., domestic brokerage firm Nuvama has predicted a passive outflow of approximately USD 180 million. This corporate action will have a notable impact on major indices such as Nifty50 and Sensex, with expected passive outflows of USD 110 million and USD 70 million, respectively.

Nuvama's analysis suggests that assuming ITC’s share price remains stable around INR 260 at the time of exclusion, the passive flow for Nifty50 will amount to USD 110 million (with a weight of 23 basis points), while Sensex will experience an outflow of USD 70 million (with a weight of 28 basis points).

A special price discovery session was held to adjust ITC’s share price, resulting in an INR 26 adjustment on NSE and INR 27 on BSE as the stock began trading ex-demerger on January 6. The demerger ratio of 1:10 (one share of ITC Hotels for every 10 shares of ITC Ltd.) has led to the valuation of ITC Hotels at approximately INR 260 on the Nifty50 indices and INR 270 on BSE indices.

Until ITC Hotels is officially listed separately, it will be treated as a "dummy entity" with a fixed price, and the stock will be held at this value temporarily. According to Nuvama, ITC Hotels is expected to be listed within the next 30-40 days. Following the listing, ITC Hotels will be removed from all NSE and BSE indices at its last traded price, effective at the opening on the listing date, with a three-day adjustment period. If the stock hits circuit limits, the exclusion will be postponed by two trading days for each occurrence.

Nuvama also noted that ITC Hotels may qualify for inclusion in the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes, but this will only happen if the stock is listed within 20 working days after the record date of the demerger.

ITC Demerger: Special Session Held to Discover ITC Hotels Share Price

By Nishang Narayan

Published on January 7, 2025

In a landmark move, ITC Ltd has begun its long-awaited demerger of ITC Hotels, with BSE and NSE conducting special pre-open trading sessions today to facilitate price discovery for the hotel business. This strategic restructuring allows ITC Hotels to operate independently, focusing exclusively on hospitality.

During the session, ITC Hotels' share price will be computed using ITC Ltd's closing and adjusted prices, incorporating a 1:10 demerger ratio. Analysts predict the shares to list between ₹150 and ₹200, with some forecasts suggesting a range of ₹200 to ₹300 based on valuations and growth prospects.

As of today, ITC Ltd's 36 lakh shareholders will receive one ITC Hotels share for every 10 ITC shares held. While ITC Hotels shares won’t officially list yet, a dummy ticker will represent the stock on indices like Nifty and Sensex until formal listing in a few weeks.

ITC retains a 40% stake in the demerged entity, with the remaining 60% distributed among shareholders. Analysts from Ambit Capital and Nomura see this as a step toward value unlocking, with ITC Hotels poised to capitalize on India's luxury hospitality sector. Asset-light models and a pure-play focus will drive future growth and profitability.

ITC’s stock price is expected to adjust downward by ₹22–₹25 due to the demerger. Experts believe this could be a temporary dip, providing an opportunity for retail investors to accumulate shares of ITC Hotels. Meanwhile, ITC Ltd aims to sharpen its focus on its high-margin FMCG business, which has seen substantial EBITDA growth.

Nomura analyst Mihir P Shah remarked, "The demerger unlocks significant value, allowing ITC Hotels to access equity and debt markets for future growth while benefiting from India's luxury hospitality sector’s re-rating."

While ITC shares ended last week at ₹482 on the BSE, underperforming over the past year, this demerger sets the stage for a potential re-rating as ITC pivots toward a leaner business model with enhanced focus on profitability.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by experts are their own and do not represent the views of Hospitality News India.)

ITC Increases Stake in Oberoi Group and Leela Mumbai Ahead of Hotel Arm Demerger

By Nishang Narayan

Published on December 20, 2024

In a strategic move ahead of the January 1, 2025, demerger of its hotel business, ITC has increased its stakes in two major players in the Indian hospitality industry. ITC has raised its shareholding in EIH Ltd, the parent company of Oberoi Hotels, to 16.13%, and in HLV Ltd, which owns The Leela Mumbai, to 8.11%.

As of September 2024, ITC held a 13.69% stake in EIH. By acquiring an additional 2.44%, equivalent to 1,52,32,129 equity shares, ITC now commands a 16.13% stake in the company. Similarly, ITC’s stake in HLV Ltd has increased from 7.58% to 8.11%, following the purchase of 34,60,829 equity shares.

In a regulatory filing, ITC announced, “...the company today has acquired 2.44 percent of the share capital (comprising 1,52,32,129 equity shares of INR 2 each) of EIH Ltd and 0.53 percent of the share capital (comprising 34,60,829 equity shares of INR 2 each) of HLV Ltd, from Russell Credit Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company.”

This move is seen as a part of ITC’s preparation for the demerger of its hotel business, ITC Hotels, from its parent group. The demerger, set to take effect from January 1, 2025, is expected to unlock greater value for ITC’s stakeholders and enhance its focus on core operations.

With the increased stakes, ITC is cementing its presence in the premium and luxury hospitality segments, strengthening its relationship with iconic brands like Oberoi Hotels and The Leela Mumbai.

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Indian Hotels Poised for Revenue Growth and ARR Surge in FY2025: ICRA Forecast

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ITC Hotels Demerger Could Lead to Passive Outflow of USD 180 Million: Nuvama

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ITC Demerger: Special Session Held to Discover ITC Hotels Share Price

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ITC Increases Stake in Oberoi Group and Leela Mumbai Ahead of Hotel Arm Demerger

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